Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$90K
Liquidity
$67K
Bid / Ask
0% / 1%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $90K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601830
This event has 14 active outcome markets. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 42%, Flávio Bolsonaro: 40%, Renan Santos: 6%.
Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this