Markets/Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?

Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

1.2%

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$9K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.70pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets16 markets

16 deadline markets. Combined YES = 128% — 28pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

Israel strike 5 countries in 2026

28%

by June 30, 2026

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026

27%

Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?

Israel strike 11 countries in 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-4.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678754