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Markets/Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
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Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?

Market Price

1%YES
99%NO

FM Estimate

1.2%
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$32K
Bid / Ask1% / 2%
Spread1.10pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026
Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market, currently trading at 1%, matters as it quantifies the collective probability assigned by traders to Israel initiating strikes across eleven countries in 2026, a significant geopolitical scenario. The low price reflects a consensus that such widespread action is unlikely, despite heightened global uncertainty indicated by a 7.7% VIX increase.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets22 markets

22 deadline markets. Combined YES = 189% — 89pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

US strike 7 countries in 2026?

US strike 7 countries in 2026

46%
Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?

Israel strike 3 countries in 2026

43%

Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?

Israel strike 11 countries in 2026

1%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-4.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678754