Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
Market Price
FM Estimate
1.2%This market, currently trading at 1%, matters as it quantifies the collective probability assigned by traders to Israel initiating strikes across eleven countries in 2026, a significant geopolitical scenario. The low price reflects a consensus that such widespread action is unlikely, despite heightened global uncertainty indicated by a 7.7% VIX increase.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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22 deadline markets. Combined YES = 189% — 89pp excess suggests collective overpricing.
Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
Israel strike 11 countries in 2026
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678754