Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$734
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
17% / 20%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
2026
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
12% YES — lowest in period
Mar 13, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: +29.5pp
21% → 50%
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
50% YES — highest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Current
16% YES (+2.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $734 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678746
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
↓ -0.91Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?
↑ 0.91Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
↑ 0.90Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.