Markets/Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Market Price

17%YES

83%NO

FM Estimate

14%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.0pp

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$12K

Bid / Ask15% / 19%

Spread4.00pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.7pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Keisha Lance Bottoms

Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor D

63%

Mike Thurmond

Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democrat

19%

Jason Esteves

Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democrat

17%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

17%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/837769