Markets/Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31?

Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:07 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$64

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+90.5pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.6pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $64 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302086