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Markets/Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Closes November 7, 2028

Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$48K

Liquidity

$320K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢

-8.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢
Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly8.0%
½ Kelly4.0%
Buy NO+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 8.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561261