Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Closes November 7, 2028
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$48K
Liquidity
$320K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2028
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Current
4% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-8.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561261
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