Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Closes April 19, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.0pp below current market price; market at 79% may be overpriced with macro signals showing USD/RUB -1.2% ↓, Oil -2.2% ↓, VIX +4.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
78% / 81%
Spread
2.50pp
Expert Signal
79%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 79%. The bid-ask spread is 2.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1228212
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Juan Pablo Velasco: 79%, Otto Ritter: 20%, Guido Eduardo Nayar: 0%.
Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatoria
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
+2.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this