Markets/Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$28K

Bid / Ask

14% / 15%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

41%

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

18%

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

14%

the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Current

14% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%

½ Kelly1.7%

Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947269