Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Closes May 26, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$45K
Bid / Ask
43% / 44%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
44%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
2026
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
78% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: -44.0pp
55% → 11%
Mar 4, 2026
Current
39% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 18, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 26, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562186
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.