Markets/Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$179K

Liquidity$24K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 3, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets23 markets

23 deadline markets. Combined YES = 204% — 104pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Choo Mi-ae

Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernator

96%

Park Soo-hyun

Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province g

94%

Kim Byeong-ju

Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Guberna

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $179K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679491