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Markets/Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
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Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Closes June 3, 2026

Polymarket Price

24%YES
77%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

30% YES

Mar 12, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

32% → 22%

Mar 19, 2026

Current

26% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 24%99%
Buy YES@ 24¢
Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679490