Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
17% / 20%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665473
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 20: 38%, Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: 19%, Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: 19%.
Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
19% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
19% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this