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Markets/Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

2%YES
98%NO
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$14K
Bid / Ask2% / 3%
Spread1.30pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

2%

Market Price

2%
Aligned
Macro fundamentals-3.1pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals
Outcome Markets16 markets

This event has 16 active outcome markets. Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 41%, less: 39%, Renan Santos finish in third place in the fir: 34%.

Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
39%
Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round o
34%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
22%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the
22%
Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first rou
3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
3%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the

2%
Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first r
1%
Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round
1%
Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first roun
1%
Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of
0%
Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round
0%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365888