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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

12%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$68K

Liquidity

$348K

Bid / Ask

12% / 12%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

2028

Full event →
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%

36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Peak probability

18% YES — highest in period

Mar 11, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 12%99%
Buy YES@ 12¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $68K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561234

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Event Cluster

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