Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$117K
Liquidity
$27K
Bid / Ask
9% / 10%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2026
29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
9% YES (+0.7pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $117K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469751
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Venue Divergence
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