Markets/Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$192

Bid / Ask

1% / 4%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Feb 22, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996329