Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
5% / 7%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2026
30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469766
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