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Markets/Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Market Price

1%YES
99%NO

FM Estimate

1%
Vol 24h$38K
Liquidity$1.4M
Bid / Ask1% / 1%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesNov 7, 2028
Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Nikki Haley's 1% probability of winning the 2028 US Presidential Election reflects a currently low but not negligible chance, particularly in the context of an extended election cycle where early indicators often deviate significantly from final outcomes. The lack of strong signals from related political markets, combined with minimal movement in broader market indicators, suggests that market participants are not currently assigning significant weight to this specific outcome.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets40 markets

40 deadline markets. Combined YES = 204% — 104pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

the Democrats

Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election

61%
the Republicans

Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election

39%

Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election

1%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $38K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561245