Markets/Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?

Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$931

Bid / Ask

14% / 25%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

18% YES — lowest in period

Mar 11, 2026

Biggest move: -7.0pp

28% → 21%

Mar 6, 2026

Current

21% YES (+2.5pp recent)

Mar 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1295980