Markets/Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

28%YES

73%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

27% / 28%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

37% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: +13.0pp

35% → 48%

Mar 1, 2026

Peak probability

48% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

28% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 28%99%

Buy YES@ 28¢

Edge

+1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 73¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996324