Markets/Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

31%YES

69%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$307

Bid / Ask

20% / 42%

Spread

22.00pp

Expert Signal

31%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Trough probability

35% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 11, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: -12.0pp

47% → 35%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

40% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 31%99%

Buy YES@ 31¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 69¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 22.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345235