Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
Closes August 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$207K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $207K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on August 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704351
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