Markets/Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Market Price

16%YES

84%NO

FM Estimate

16%

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$12K

Bid / Ask15% / 16%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Macro fundamentals+2.2pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets61 markets

61 deadline markets. Combined YES = 738% — 638pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Candace Owens announce a presidential run bef

Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 202

50%

Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2

Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027

45%

Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run be

Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 20

16%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692261