Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$48K
Bid / Ask
40% / 41%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
39% YES
Mar 10, 2026
Current
40% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/947268
Correlated Markets
Explore all →Will José Gary Áñez win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?
↓ -0.97Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
↓ -0.97Will Jhonny Fernández win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election?
↑ 0.97Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.