Markets/Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$211

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2026

Full event →

30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $211 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349165