Markets/Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$13K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 2, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets11 markets

11 deadline markets. Combined YES = 103% — 3pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral electi

55%

Karen Bass

Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election

27%

Rick Caruso

Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral electio

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/629031