Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$23K
Liquidity
$97K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601827
This event has 14 active outcome markets. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 42%, Flávio Bolsonaro: 40%, Renan Santos: 6%.
Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential elec
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
3% YES (-1.7pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this