Markets/Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?

Market Price

7%YES

93%NO

FM Estimate

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.3pp

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$2K

Bid / Ask6% / 7%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesMay 31, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.1pp

Historical patterns-0.4pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets. Market implies ~13% chance none resolve YES.

by December 31, 2026

Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026

61%

by June 30, 2026

Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026

18%

by May 31, 2026

Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2053573