Markets/Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$325K

Liquidity

$31K

Bid / Ask

5% / 6%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2026

Full event →

30 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-1.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Current

7% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

Edge

+6.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+6.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $325K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349168