Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
37% / 39%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1076686
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 20: 38%, Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: 19%, Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?: 19%.
Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
38% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
38% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this