Markets/Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes October 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$50K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

2026

Full event →

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

11%

the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Biggest move: +5.1pp

3% → 8%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on October 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/637012