Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?
Closes July 16, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$419
Bid / Ask
29% / 68%
Spread
39.00pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 39.00 percentage points. The market closes on July 16, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1972630
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Bank of Korea increase the base rate after th: 49%, Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after th: 32%, Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate: 22%.
Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Mee
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
47% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Trough probability
39% YES — lowest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: -11.5pp
51% → 39%
Apr 14, 2026
Current
47% YES (+4.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this