ForecastMind
Markets/Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Share on X

Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

15%YES
85%NO
Vol 24h$27K
Liquidity$21K
Bid / Ask14% / 16%
Spread2.00pp

FM Estimate

13%

Market Price

15%
↑ Overpriced 1.6pp
Macro fundamentals-2.3pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. Kuomintang (KMT): 82%, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP): 15%, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP): 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~3%.

Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government
82%

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of

15%
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local
1%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/814613