Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$33K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
12% / 13%
Spread
1.80pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
March 2026
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.8pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1378923
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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