Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$528K
Liquidity
$1.0M
Bid / Ask
13% / 14%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Biggest move: -7.5pp
26% → 19%
Mar 6, 2026
Current
14% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $528K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1507751
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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