ForecastMind
Markets/Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Share on X

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

44%YES
56%NO

Volume 24h

$47K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

43% / 45%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

44%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.6pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?" at 44% YES / 56% NO. In the last 24 hours, $47K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 44%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-07). "Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 44%, NO 56%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1708576

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. April 30: 44%, April 15: 30%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~26%.

Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

44%
Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
30%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-24.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

68% YES

Apr 7, 2026

Trough probability

44% YES — lowest in period

Apr 7, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Apr 7, 2026

Biggest move: -19.0pp

68% → 49%

Apr 7, 2026

Current

44% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Apr 7, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 44%99%
Buy YES@ 44¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 56¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this