Markets/Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?

Market Price

8%YES

92%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$21K

Bid / Ask2% / 4%

Spread1.40pp

ClosesMay 10, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+0.5pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets25 markets

This event has 25 active outcome markets. May 15, 2026: 74%, May 5, 2026: 60%, April 30, 2026: 46%.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

74%

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

60%

next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40pp. The market closes on May 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2047145