Markets/Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$23K

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesMay 10, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets13 markets

13 deadline markets. Combined YES = 183% — 83pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by May 15, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026

68%

by May 5, 2026

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026

54%

next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.8pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on May 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2047150