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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 02:40 AM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$29K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

18% / 19%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $64,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 21?

above $60,000 on March 21?

above $66,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 21?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 21?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

18%

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 21?

$85,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

$90,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$72,000 on March 20?

$95,000 in March?

$100,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 20?

$110,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 21?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 21?

above $82,000 on March 22?

$73,000 on March 20?

$74,000 on March 20?

above $80,000 on March 21?

above $78,000 on March 21?

$76,000 on March 20?

$78,000 on March 20?

$75,000 on March 20?

$77,000 on March 20?

43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -9.0pp

24% → 15%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

14% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 22?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598804

Go Deeper

Entity Hub

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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