Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +0.8pp above current market price; market at 62% may be underpriced with macro signals showing ETH +0.7% ↑, S&P +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
62% / 63%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
62%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15?" at 62% YES / 38% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 62%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 62%, NO 38%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919302
This event has 23 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 8, 2026
Trough probability
9% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
24%
Apr 8, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
63%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -26.0pp
50% → 24%
Apr 8, 2026
Peak probability
66% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
61% YES (-4.5pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-1.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this