Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15?
Closes April 15, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +3.2pp above current market price; market at 94% may be underpriced with macro signals showing BTC +0.9% ↑, ETH +0.9% ↑, S&P +0.5% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$61K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
93% / 94%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
93%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1919299
This event has 33 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 14: 100%, price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 14: 100%.
price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
50% YES
Apr 8, 2026
Trough probability
30% YES — lowest in period
Apr 13, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
40%
Apr 8, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
53%
Apr 9, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 10, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
46%
Apr 12, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
53%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: +27.5pp
59% → 87%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
92% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
90% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this