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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 02:40 AM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$53K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

March

above $64,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 21?

above $60,000 on March 21?

above $66,000 on March 21?

above $62,000 on March 22?

above $64,000 on March 22?

above $68,000 on March 21?

above $68,000 on March 22?

above $70,000 on March 21?

above $70,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 22?

$80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?

above $72,000 on March 21?

$85,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 22?

2%

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?

$90,000 in March?

above $76,000 on March 22?

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March?

above $78,000 on March 22?

$72,000 on March 20?

$95,000 in March?

$100,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 20?

$110,000 in March?

above $74,000 on March 21?

$105,000 in March?

$150,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?

above $80,000 on March 22?

above $76,000 on March 21?

above $82,000 on March 22?

$73,000 on March 20?

$74,000 on March 20?

above $80,000 on March 21?

above $78,000 on March 21?

$76,000 on March 20?

$78,000 on March 20?

$75,000 on March 20?

$77,000 on March 20?

43 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

%

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598805

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Forecaster Signals

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

Event Cluster

All markets about the same event across venues.

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