Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25?
Closes March 25, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
15% / 17%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
13%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23?
March
32 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Current
14% YES (-2.0pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1640447
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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