Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?

Data as of Mar 28, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

16% / 17%

Spread

1.30pp

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on…

March

Full event →

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 29?

62%

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?

17%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 29?

17%

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 29?

between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 29?

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 29?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 29?

greater than $78,000 on March 29?

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-10.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Trough probability

23% YES — lowest in period

Mar 28, 2026

Biggest move: -9.8pp

33% → 23%

Mar 28, 2026

Current

24% YES (+1.1pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 83¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 29?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1683283

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