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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$29K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705512

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 50%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 36%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 10%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: -17.6pp

26% → 8%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

27% YES — highest in period

Mar 30, 2026

Current

8% YES (-0.6pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%
½ Kelly0.1%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this