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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

26%YES
75%NO

Volume 24h

$27K

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

26% / 27%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

26%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?" at 26% YES / 74% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 26%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 26%, NO 74%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705516

Outcome Markets8 markets

This event has 8 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 57%, price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 26%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 14%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+15.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

18% → 42%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

42% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

32% YES (-3.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 26%99%
Buy YES@ 26¢
Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 75¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this