Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:20 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

30%YES

71%NO

Volume 24h

$26K

Liquidity

$26K

Bid / Ask

26% / 28%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and…

March

Full event →

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23?

35%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?

32%

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 23?

14%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 23?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 23?

between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23?

between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23?

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

38% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

35% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 30%99%

Buy YES@ 30¢

Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 71¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. In the last 24 hours, $26K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 23?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1607588

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