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Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?
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Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

37%YES
64%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

44% / 45%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

37%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?" at 37% YES / 63% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 37%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 37%, NO 63%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1705516

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,0: 37%, price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 35%, price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,0: 11%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~11%.

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+24.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

17% YES

Mar 24, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

18% → 42%

Mar 31, 2026

Peak probability

42% YES — highest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

41% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 37%99%
Buy YES@ 37¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 64¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this