ForecastMind
Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 2?
Share on X

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 2?

Closes April 2, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.80pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+33.3pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 2?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 2?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731407

Outcome Markets7 markets

This event has 7 active outcome markets. price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,0: 37%, price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,0: 8%, price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,0: 2%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~52%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

2% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 2%99%
Buy YES@ 2¢
Edge

+33.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 99¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+33.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this