Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 26?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 26?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

Vol 24h$19K

Liquidity$21K

Bid / Ask1% / 2%

Spread0.50pp

ClosesApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets37 markets

37 deadline markets. Market implies ~8% chance none resolve YES.

Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April

42%

Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?

Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April

14%

price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,0

price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on A

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.6pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 26?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $19K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50pp. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 26?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2023754